Session on “Global Disasters: Addressing the Risk Associated with Extreme Geohazards”

Organized by the GHCP at GEORisk 2014 with support from, and in coordination with, the European Science Foundation.

EXTREME GEOHAZARDS: REDUCING THE DISASTER RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-PROBABILITY, HIGH-IMPACT EVENTS

Hans-Peter Plag¹, Sean Brocklebank², Deborah Brosnan³, Paola Campus⁴, Shelley Jules- Plag⁵, Seth Stein⁶
1) Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA
2) School of Economics, University of Edinburgh, U.K.
3) Brosnan Center, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
4) European Science Foundation, Strasbourg, France
5) Tiwah UG, Rossbach, Germany
6) Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA

Humanity is challenged by low-probability, high-impact hazards that could cause global catastrophes. These events have in common that their probability is not well known and that direct experience is lacking. Although extreme geohazards have occurred in the past, the associated disasters were rare and generally less severe because human exposure was much lower. Luckily, modern civilization has not experienced the most extreme events so far. Recent large earthquakes illustrated the destruction they can inflict. Those relatively frequent hazards with major impacts are on our radar screen. The more we can handle events that occur frequently, the less we are worried about the less frequent events, so threats from low-frequency, high impact events are largely underestimated in disaster risk reduction (DRR). This applies in particular to the threats deriving from volcanic eruptions: under today's circumstances, the largest volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene could impact societal infrastructure, human health, supply of resources, transportation, and food and water security on global scale. Their potential impact on civilization is comparable to other possible mega disasters from extreme droughts, floods, pandemics, and asteroid impacts.

Supported by the European Science Foundation, the Geohazards Community of Practice of the Group on Earth Observations prepared a white paper reviewing the risk associated with extreme geohazards. A global volcano monitoring system is essential to achieve an in-depth understanding of all the phenomena preceding a volcanic eruption: the systematic monitoring of all the parameters associated to a volcanic eruption sets the ground for implementing an early warning system (EWS) and mitigating the risk of occurrence of disasters. Consolidated synergies among all the existing monitoring networks are a key to success in global monitoring of hazardous events. In general, DRR for extreme events requires a paradigm shift from specified to general preparedness on regional to global scales. Similarly, while it is important to understand and detect the hazards (the contribution of geosciences), it is equally important to understand the processes that can lead to, or prevent, failure (the contribution of social sciences and engineering). A joint interdisciplinary effort and a revised science-policy relationship are required to achieve DRR through increased general community resilience and reduced fragility. A transition to co-design and co-creation of knowledge involving a broad stakeholder base is necessary, particularly for extreme events. Efficient DRR will require reducing vulnerability of infrastructure, increase economic and social resilience, and developing adaptive capabilities to potentially large long-term changes in environmental conditions. We suggest a paradigm shift toward integrated DRR and Resilience (D3R) programs that more aggressively facilitate the public trust, cooperation, and communication needed to adequately prepare for and recover from both expected and Black Swan disasters. In D3R, science’s primary goal is less to reduce uncertainties and prediction errors for hazards, but rather to develop antifragile processes and strengthen resilience through increased social capital. An international process is needed to regularly assess the risk associated with extreme geohazards and our preparedness to cope with these high-impact events. This process could be an amalgam of those used by the IPCC and the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) carried out by the Department of Defense of the USA.