Session on “Global Disasters: Addressing the Risk Associated with Extreme Geohazards”

Organized by the GHCP at GEORisk 2014 with support from, and in coordination with, the European Science Foundation.

FACILITATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN STRATEGIC SCIENCE FOR EXTREME GEOHAZARD POLICIES AND DECISIONS

Deborah Brosnan, University of California, Davis California USA and Brosnan Center. Brosnan@deborahbrosnan.com

Extreme geohazards can cause disasters on a global scale. Fortunately, modern civilization has not experienced such extreme hazards yet. However, recent events such as the Iceland volcanic eruptions point to the severity and far reaching consequences they will have. In today’s world, the largest volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene could impact societal infrastructure, human health, and supply of resources, transportation, and food and water security on global scale. Their potential impact on civilization is comparable to other possible mega disasters from extreme droughts, floods, pandemics, and asteroid impacts. But experience of these events is lacking and appropriate preparation is poor.

Disaster management and risk reduction for extreme geohazards, that will occur, requires a paradigm shift in scientific monitoring, science-communication to stakeholders, and in ability to respond to real threats. Scientific information can help guide decision-making but key challenges are in regularly generating that information and identifying entities that can receive and act effectively on that scientific. The audience for science is diverse. Governments must make decisions that will affect citizens, environment, and trade. Private sector has a limited timeframe before they run short and will be concerned about return to operations. For multi-national entities the challenges are even more complex.

Decision-makers frequently turn to science only when a crisis is perceived as imminent. Consequently critical decisions must be made with little time to evaluate scenarios, when the uncertainties are high and the consequences great. We need a strategic science framework and approach that will help decision makers and the publicunderstand and plan for extreme geohazards. This framework should also incorporate a tactical science approach that allows for the kinds of rapid decisions that must be made when events are occurring. An international science framework liking scientists to national and international decision-making levels could increase resilience and decrease the severity of the event and time spent in recovery.

Currently there is no framework for such an international science advising and reporting that integrates into decision-making for extreme geohazards. To help envision and facilitate such thinking, scenario planning can be powerful approach. Used in other situations e.g. tsunami planning it helps stakeholders to better appreciate risks and formulate innovative solutions.